This study investigates the characterization of rainfall season trends and variability and their implications on crop growing seasons in Eastern Amhara, Ethiopia. Understanding rainfall patterns is very important for agricultural planning, water resource management, and climate resilience in a region heavily dependent on rain-fed agriculture. Different researches clearly show the influence of global climate phenomena on regional precipitation patterns and the challenges posed by climate variability in Africa, particularly in Ethiopia. This study is done using CHIRPS data based on the geographical location of 20 areas in the study area over a 40-year period (1981-2020). R Instate software is used to determine onset and cessation dates and Mann-Kendall trend analysis, Coefficient of Variability, Standardized Anomaly Index and Precipitation Concentration Index are used to see the variability and trend of rainfall, rainfall onset and cessation dates. Findings reveal a consistent rainfall onset in early June across most locations, with some areas experiencing earlier or later starts, indicating regional climatic heterogeneity. The cessation of rainfall typically occurs in mid-September, although some areas report variations. CV result shows moderate to low variability in rainfall distribution across Eastern Amhara. Mann Kendall trend analysis showed that all months except June have shown no significant trend with P values over 0.05. An increasing trend is only seen in June for the month June with a p-value of 0.004. No significant trend in onset dates observed in the study area. 5 shows increasing trend and the rest showed no trend on cessation dates. 3 out of twenty areas show significant increasing trend (Amba Mariam, Majete and Wegeltena) on LGP. The SAI, PCI and CV results show a range of results for all the areas and years. Adaptive strategies are necessary to address the identified trends and variability. Farmers are encouraged to adjust cropping calendars, adopt drought-resistant crop varieties, and invest in water harvesting and irrigation infrastructure. The recommendations include integrated water resource management approaches, including investments in rainwater harvesting, storage reservoirs, and efficient irrigation systems. Collaboration among policymakers, researchers, local communities, and development practitioners is crucial to enhance resilience to changing rainfall patterns.
| Published in | International Journal of Economy, Energy and Environment (Volume 10, Issue 6) |
| DOI | 10.11648/j.ijeee.20251006.13 |
| Page(s) | 177-192 |
| Creative Commons |
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited. |
| Copyright |
Copyright © The Author(s), 2025. Published by Science Publishing Group |
Rainfall Variability and Trends Analysis, Characterization of Rainfall, Eastern Amhara, Ethiopia
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APA Style
Amehse, A., Sewagegn, T. (2025). Characterization of Rainfall Trends, Variability and Their Implications on Crop Growing Seasons in Eastern Amhara, Ethiopia. International Journal of Economy, Energy and Environment, 10(6), 177-192. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijeee.20251006.13
ACS Style
Amehse, A.; Sewagegn, T. Characterization of Rainfall Trends, Variability and Their Implications on Crop Growing Seasons in Eastern Amhara, Ethiopia. Int. J. Econ. Energy Environ. 2025, 10(6), 177-192. doi: 10.11648/j.ijeee.20251006.13
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Download@article{10.11648/j.ijeee.20251006.13,
author = {Abraham Amehse and Tilahun Sewagegn},
title = {Characterization of Rainfall Trends, Variability and Their Implications on Crop Growing Seasons in Eastern Amhara, Ethiopia},
journal = {International Journal of Economy, Energy and Environment},
volume = {10},
number = {6},
pages = {177-192},
doi = {10.11648/j.ijeee.20251006.13},
url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijeee.20251006.13},
eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijeee.20251006.13},
abstract = {This study investigates the characterization of rainfall season trends and variability and their implications on crop growing seasons in Eastern Amhara, Ethiopia. Understanding rainfall patterns is very important for agricultural planning, water resource management, and climate resilience in a region heavily dependent on rain-fed agriculture. Different researches clearly show the influence of global climate phenomena on regional precipitation patterns and the challenges posed by climate variability in Africa, particularly in Ethiopia. This study is done using CHIRPS data based on the geographical location of 20 areas in the study area over a 40-year period (1981-2020). R Instate software is used to determine onset and cessation dates and Mann-Kendall trend analysis, Coefficient of Variability, Standardized Anomaly Index and Precipitation Concentration Index are used to see the variability and trend of rainfall, rainfall onset and cessation dates. Findings reveal a consistent rainfall onset in early June across most locations, with some areas experiencing earlier or later starts, indicating regional climatic heterogeneity. The cessation of rainfall typically occurs in mid-September, although some areas report variations. CV result shows moderate to low variability in rainfall distribution across Eastern Amhara. Mann Kendall trend analysis showed that all months except June have shown no significant trend with P values over 0.05. An increasing trend is only seen in June for the month June with a p-value of 0.004. No significant trend in onset dates observed in the study area. 5 shows increasing trend and the rest showed no trend on cessation dates. 3 out of twenty areas show significant increasing trend (Amba Mariam, Majete and Wegeltena) on LGP. The SAI, PCI and CV results show a range of results for all the areas and years. Adaptive strategies are necessary to address the identified trends and variability. Farmers are encouraged to adjust cropping calendars, adopt drought-resistant crop varieties, and invest in water harvesting and irrigation infrastructure. The recommendations include integrated water resource management approaches, including investments in rainwater harvesting, storage reservoirs, and efficient irrigation systems. Collaboration among policymakers, researchers, local communities, and development practitioners is crucial to enhance resilience to changing rainfall patterns.},
year = {2025}
}
TY - JOUR T1 - Characterization of Rainfall Trends, Variability and Their Implications on Crop Growing Seasons in Eastern Amhara, Ethiopia AU - Abraham Amehse AU - Tilahun Sewagegn Y1 - 2025/12/31 PY - 2025 N1 - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijeee.20251006.13 DO - 10.11648/j.ijeee.20251006.13 T2 - International Journal of Economy, Energy and Environment JF - International Journal of Economy, Energy and Environment JO - International Journal of Economy, Energy and Environment SP - 177 EP - 192 PB - Science Publishing Group SN - 2575-5021 UR - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijeee.20251006.13 AB - This study investigates the characterization of rainfall season trends and variability and their implications on crop growing seasons in Eastern Amhara, Ethiopia. Understanding rainfall patterns is very important for agricultural planning, water resource management, and climate resilience in a region heavily dependent on rain-fed agriculture. Different researches clearly show the influence of global climate phenomena on regional precipitation patterns and the challenges posed by climate variability in Africa, particularly in Ethiopia. This study is done using CHIRPS data based on the geographical location of 20 areas in the study area over a 40-year period (1981-2020). R Instate software is used to determine onset and cessation dates and Mann-Kendall trend analysis, Coefficient of Variability, Standardized Anomaly Index and Precipitation Concentration Index are used to see the variability and trend of rainfall, rainfall onset and cessation dates. Findings reveal a consistent rainfall onset in early June across most locations, with some areas experiencing earlier or later starts, indicating regional climatic heterogeneity. The cessation of rainfall typically occurs in mid-September, although some areas report variations. CV result shows moderate to low variability in rainfall distribution across Eastern Amhara. Mann Kendall trend analysis showed that all months except June have shown no significant trend with P values over 0.05. An increasing trend is only seen in June for the month June with a p-value of 0.004. No significant trend in onset dates observed in the study area. 5 shows increasing trend and the rest showed no trend on cessation dates. 3 out of twenty areas show significant increasing trend (Amba Mariam, Majete and Wegeltena) on LGP. The SAI, PCI and CV results show a range of results for all the areas and years. Adaptive strategies are necessary to address the identified trends and variability. Farmers are encouraged to adjust cropping calendars, adopt drought-resistant crop varieties, and invest in water harvesting and irrigation infrastructure. The recommendations include integrated water resource management approaches, including investments in rainwater harvesting, storage reservoirs, and efficient irrigation systems. Collaboration among policymakers, researchers, local communities, and development practitioners is crucial to enhance resilience to changing rainfall patterns. VL - 10 IS - 6 ER -
LalibelaStudy, Design and Supervision Enterprise, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
Data and Climatology, Western Amhara Meteorological Service Centre, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
